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But the range of their forecasts is wide, from a relatively remote probability of a recession, commonly defined as the economy contracting for two consecutive quarters, to more confident predictions that a recession is imminent. In general, forecasters who say a recession will be averted stress that they might be overly optimistic, while those who are confident the economy will contract are quick to say a recession won’t be too bad.

Here is what some economists, analysts, and strategists have recently said about the chances of a recession:

Daniel Bachman, who heads the US economic forecasting team at the consultancy, estimates the chance of a recession to be around 15 percent, “less likely than some analysts would have you believe.”

Pantheon Macroeconomics

Ian Shepherdson, the research house’s chief economist, says its “base case remains that a recession is unlikely” and that, if there is one, it will be “short and mild”.

Morgan Stanley

Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at the investment bank, notes that “accelerating inflation has been a common precursor to recessions.” But despite high and rising inflation, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is around 30 percent, according to the bank’s models.

Goldman Sachs

Analysts at the Wall Street giant have increased their predicted probability of a recession, but believe it can still be avoided (via “a feasible though difficult path”). David Mericle and Ronnie Walker put the odds of a recession in the next year at 30 percent, up from 15 percent previously, and just under 50 percent in the next two years, up from 35 percent.

JPMorgan Chase

Economists at the largest US bank, led by Chief Economist Bruce Kasman, raised their expected probability of a recession in the next 12 months to an “uncomfortably high” 35 percent. “Risks are biased decisively to the upside for inflation and downside for growth,” they write.

Bank of America

Ethan Harris, the bank’s global economist, expects growth to slow to near zero in the second half of next year, with a 40 percent chance of a full-on recession and “only a modest rebound” in 2024.

Citi Group

Economists at Citigroup, led by Nathan Sheets, the chief global economist, put the odds of a global recession at 50 percent and expect the US economy to slow but not shrink, though “we believe probabilities of recession are appreciable and are increasing”.

td bank

The Canadian bank’s economics team, led by Beata Caranci, the chief economist, does not expect a US recession, though “with growth near stalling speed, there is very little margin for error if economies suffer.” another shock”.

swiss credit

After deep cuts to its forecasts, the US economy is “on the verge of a recession”, according to the team led by Jeremy Schwartz, head of the US economy at the Swiss bank, but there are “shock absorbers” they should protect the economy from “spiraling into a broader recession.”

oxford economics

The Federal Reserve has a “fighting opportunity” to control inflation without causing a recession, writes Kathy Bostjancic, the group’s chief US economist. She has cut her growth forecasts, which are “precariously close to a recession in mid-2023,” she says.

Fitch Ratings

The Fitch Ratings team, led by Brian Coulton, the chief economist, expects economic growth to slow to just 0.1 percent per quarter in the second to fourth quarters of next year, a pace that will put the economy “dangerously close to the risk of technical recession”.


Analysts at the German bank, led by Holger Schmieding, the chief economist, expect the US economy to stall by the end of 2022 and shrink in the first three quarters of 2023, but only by a “relatively modest” 0.4 percent. For the year. “Hopefully, the recession will be shallow,” they write.

german bank

Months ago, economists at the German bank forecast that the US economy would enter a recession at the end of 2023, but now they expect “an earlier and somewhat more severe recession,” according to the team led by Matthew Luzzetti, director of the bank. American economist. They expect the economy to contract 0.5 percent in 2023.

fargo wells

A recession in 2023 “looks more likely than not,” according to a report by Jay Bryson, the bank’s chief economist. His forecast is for the economy to contract 1 percent for two quarters next year, “one of the mildest recessions in the post-World War II era,” similar to the recession of the early 1990s. Something akin to a silver lining, he writes: “Because we think the recession won’t be especially deep, we don’t expect the job market to completely unravel.

S&P Global Ratings

A report led by Beth Ann Bovino, chief US economist at S&P Global, put the risk of a recession at 40 percent: “Economic momentum will likely shield the US economy from recession in 2022 “said the report. “But, with supply chain disruptions worsening as the weight of extremely high prices hurts purchasing power and aggressive Fed policy drives up borrowing costs, it is hard to see the economy emerging unscathed. of 2023.

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